Under the “Kimi Moment”: Smart Money Has Already Made Its Move… How Can Web3 Help More People Open a New Door to Investment?

EXIO Research Institute

In January 2025, DeepSeek stunned the world with a low-cost, high-performance model. The U.S. stock market’s AI sector shuddered, and Wall Street traders were left speechless. That day became known as the “DeepSeek Moment.”[1]

A year and a half later, in July 2026, a similar scene unfolded. Moonshot AI released Kimi K3. On the day of the launch, the company’s ARR recorded its largest single-day increase in history. Within 48 hours of going live, usage hit compute limits, forcing the company to suspend new consumer subscriptions. Wall Street began buzzing about the “Kimi Moment.”[2][3]

Amid the hype, it is easy to get distracted. What EXIO Research Institute wants to highlight is this: the real revelation of the “Kimi Moment” for capital markets — and for investors, especially those operating at the intersection of Web2 and Web3 — may not lie in the retail frenzy that follows a stock’s listing. Rather, it lies in the equity trading window that ordinary people cannot see: the period before the IPO. 

The battlefield of wealth management is quietly and steadily shifting from “scrambling for shares after listing” to “positioning before listing.” And Web3 tools are becoming the invisible force empowering these opportunities.

From DeepSeek to Kimi: What Happened in One Year

To understand why this door is opening now, we need to go back a year. In January 2025, DeepSeek’s sudden emergence proved one thing: top-tier AI capabilities do not necessarily require astronomical capital expenditure.[1]

A year later, the baton was passed to Kimi. On July 16, 2026, Moonshot AI released Kimi K3: a 2.8-trillion-parameter Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture, the world’s largest open-weight model, 1-million-token context window, and native visual capabilities. Model weights are scheduled to be released before July 27.[4]

If the DeepSeek Moment was a declaration that “Chinese AI can catch up,” the significance of K3 lies in “sustained follow-through.” Morgan Stanley has stated outright that Chinese AI has the ability to continuously keep pace with the global cutting edge.[3] One surprise is an anomaly; two is a trend.

Kimi K3: How Parameters Are Rewriting the Game 

Trends need data to be validated. Third-party evaluations of K3’s quality speak for themselves: an Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index score of 57, ranking third globally — behind only Claude Fable 5 and GPT-5.6 Sol, and ahead of Claude Opus 4.8 and GPT-5.5. In the Code Arena front-end programming blind test, it scored 1,679 points and ranked first in the world.[5]

Bernstein Research called K3 “a home run.” Elon Musk left a simple comment on X: “Impressive.”[3] Gavin Baker, Founder and CIO of Atreides Management, further noted that as a high-performance open-source model, K3 could restructure profit margins at the model layer and benefit sectors such as power, semiconductors, and hyperscale cloud providers.[6]

Commercial figures are equally striking. Moonshot AI’s ARR rose from approximately USD 100 million in February 2026 to USD 200 million in March and USD 300 million by June, with API revenue accounting for over 70%. The previous generation, K2.6, saw overseas paying users grow 4x and API revenue increase 400%, with the product now available in more than 200 countries and regions.[7]

Valuation has jumped in three stages: post-money valuation of USD 4.3 billion after the Series C round in December 2025; USD 8 billion in February 2026; approximately RMB 13.6 billion (a record single financing round for a Chinese large model) in the Series D round in May, bringing the post-money valuation to USD 20 billion; and a new round launched in June already targeting around USD 31.5 billion.[8]

Then came two Bloomberg reports that ignited the market: on July 19, Moonshot AI was said to have circulated shareholder resolution documents seeking support for a Hong Kong listing, potentially within six months, and had already held discussions with Goldman Sachs and CICC regarding underwriting roles.[9] On July 21, it was further reported that the company planned to begin negotiations for a final pre-IPO financing round in August, with a target valuation of USD 50 billion.[10]

Why — and How — Is Smart Money Rushing In Before the Bell Rings? 

The market is red-hot, yet some still consider the valuation elevated. Even so, large numbers of investors are scrambling to get in. So who is boarding the train, and why the urgency before the IPO?

In reality, when a company sees its valuation target jump from USD 4.3 billion to USD 50 billion within half a year, equity in the primary market itself becomes the most sought-after asset.

Market sources indicate that this pre-IPO round is being led by Sequoia China, Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADIA, and a Middle Eastern family office. Investors are reportedly almost all signing “anti-dilution clauses + mandatory exit rights upon Hong Kong listing.”[11] Note these names: sovereign funds, family offices, and top-tier VCs — a classic “smart money” combination. Previous shareholders already include Alibaba, Meituan, Xiaohongshu, and China Mobile.[11]

Why the hurry? Look at the demonstration effect from the secondary market. Zhipu AI (02513.HK) listed on January 8, 2026, with public offering oversubscription of approximately 1,159 times. Since listing, its share price once rose more than tenfold, and market capitalization briefly exceeded HKD 1 trillion. MiniMax (00100.HK) listed on January 9, rising 109% on debut with oversubscription of 1,838 times.[12]

Meanwhile, participation by international long-term capital in Hong Kong IPOs has surged from roughly 10–15% in early 2024 to 85–90% currently. Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds and European family offices frequently appear on cornerstone investor lists.[13] Zhipu’s 11 cornerstone investors subscribed for HKD 2.984 billion, accounting for about 68.63% of the offering, leaving free float at only around 3% — retail investors simply cannot get meaningful allocation in the public market.[14]

But the other side of the story must also be told clearly. On July 17, Zhipu plunged more than 28% in a single day. MiniMax has pulled back approximately 75–80% from its peak and faces the unlocking of about 46.4% of its shares.[12] Pre-IPO equity carries low liquidity, opaque information, and long lock-up periods. After valuations have multiplied several times within half a year in the primary market, the risk of “heights causing dizziness” is equally real.

By comparison, DeepSeek is reportedly advancing a second financing round at a USD 74 billion valuation — only one month after its previous pre-money valuation of USD 54.3 billion.[15] The pricing speed of the entire sector no longer tolerates hesitation, nor does it tolerate blindness. FOMO is understandable; due diligence is non-negotiable.

Potential Impact on Hong Kong and Asian Markets 

Where is this capital migration landing? The answer is Hong Kong. Moonshot AI’s choice of Hong Kong is no coincidence. Chapter 18C of the Hong Kong Stock Exchange Listing Rules, effective since March 2023, allows pre-profit specialist technology companies to list. In the first half of 2026, Hong Kong saw 87 new listings raising HKD 210.2 billion — up more than 90% year-on-year. In the first quarter, Hong Kong became the world’s top listing and financing center for TMT and AI companies. By the end of April, 14 of the 15 companies listed under Chapter 18C came from the AI value chain. TMT accounted for over 40% of Hong Kong stock market turnover, with 488 companies in the listing pipeline.[16]

Hong Kong is becoming the “home ground” for this round of the AI capital story.

The home ground is ready, but the tickets are not affordable for everyone. The barrier to pre-IPO equity transactions remains extremely high — entry tickets often running into millions of dollars, closed LP networks, and lengthy lock-up periods. Even among professional investors as defined under Hong Kong law, those with relatively smaller asset bases can only watch from the sidelines.

This is not without solutions. In recent years, the market has openly discussed whether RWA (Real World Asset) tokenization can “fractionalize” private equity, private credit, and similar assets, thereby lowering investment thresholds within a compliant framework. Hong Kong’s Stablecoins Ordinance, which took effect in August 2025, has provided a clearer regulatory foundation for such exploration.[17]

Beyond discussion, licensed institutions have already begun implementation. In Hong Kong, EX.IO (a SFC-licensed Virtual Asset Trading Platform under EXIO Group) has been continuously expanding its presence in the RWA space.[18] The compliant tokenized products offered on the platform have underlying assets covering gold, equities, bonds, and more. More recently, EX.IO completed Hong Kong’s first compliant distribution of SpaceX equity-linked tokens before SpaceX’s listing, and has been authorized to distribute traditional investment products. By leveraging blockchain infrastructure, it has opened a new pathway for professional investors to participate in the growth of top-tier unicorns. The explorations of such licensed institutions serve as a real-world window into how these discussions are moving from paper to practice — and they signal a deeper convergence between the Web2 and Web3 worlds.

Conclusion 

Returning to the original question: is there still an opportunity for retail investors? From DeepSeek to Kimi, Chinese AI has proven over a year and a half that “catching up” is not a flash in the pan. But the more thought-provoking change is this: the timing of value discovery is shifting forward. Smart money has already taken its seat before the listing bell rings.

This does not mean everyone should rush into the pre-IPO market — the three mountains of liquidity, transparency, and valuation still stand tall. The real question is: as the battlefield of wealth management moves forward, can market infrastructure and regulatory frameworks keep pace, allowing more people to see this door in a compliant and transparent manner?

That is the most valuable question the “Kimi Moment” leaves for Hong Kong.

References:  

News:

[1] Caixin and other outlets’ coverage of the “DeepSeek moment” (January 2025)

[3] Gelonghui Research (July 20, 2026); BlockTempo/Caixin (market reaction and the single-day increase in annual recurring revenue, or ARR)

[4] Caixin (July 17, 2026): Launch of Kimi K3 and the planned release of its model weights

[7] Caixin; Bloomberg (Moonshot AI’s ARR trajectory and overseas performance data for Kimi K2.6)

[8] 36Kr, Caixin, and EET China (Moonshot AI’s three-stage valuation surge and Series D financing history)

[9] Bloomberg (July 19, 2026): Moonshot AI’s planned Hong Kong IPO and underwriting discussions with Goldman Sachs and China International Capital Corporation (CICC)

[10] Bloomberg (July 21, 2026): Plans to begin pre-IPO financing talks in August at a target valuation of US$50 billion

[11] Gelonghui/Sohu (July 19, 2026; market reports): Lead investors and proposed terms of the pre-IPO round

[12] 36Kr; CNFOL (July 20, 2026): Post-listing performance and lock-up expirations of Zhipu AI and MiniMax

[13] Sohu Finance (January 29, 2026): Participation rate of international long-only investors in Hong Kong IPOs

[14] TMTPost (May 8, 2026): Cornerstone investor subscriptions for Zhipu AI and MiniMax

[15] 36Kr, citing The Information and Bloomberg (July 16, 2026): DeepSeek’s valuation in its second funding round

[16] Shanghai Securities News; CNFOL (Hong Kong IPO and Chapter 18C data for the first half of 2026)

Official Sources

[16] Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited (HKEX): the Chapter 18C listing regime and listing-pipeline data

[17] Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region: Stablecoins Ordinance (effective August 1, 2025) (info.gov.hk)

[18] Public announcements from EX.IO and materials published by Franklin Templeton (VATP licence, strategic partnership, and distribution of grBENJI—the Franklin OnChain U.S. Government Money Fund) (ex.io)

Media Coverage

[2] Caixin; BlockTempo (market reaction following the Kimi K3 launch and discussion of the “Kimi moment”)

[5] Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index; Code Arena blind evaluations (cited by Gelonghui Research/HK01 on July 20, 2026) (artificialanalysis.ai)

[6] Caixin (July 20, 2026): Comments by Gavin Baker of Atreides Management

[15] The Information (original reporting on DeepSeek’s fundraising valuation)

Additional Notes

According to Goldman Sachs data, prices for mainstream large language models have fallen by more than 90% per million tokens since early 2022. Weekly token usage across platforms rose from approximately 21 trillion in early April to 46.66 trillion by mid-June in Q2 2026, as cited by Gelonghui Research.

Disclaimer  

This material is prepared by EXIO Research Institute for general information and research reference purposes only. It does not constitute any investment, financial, legal, or tax advice, nor does it constitute any solicitation, offer, or recommendation. EXIO Research Institute is a research platform under EXIO Group. The content of this material reflects only the views of the research team and does not represent the official position of EXIO Group or any of its affiliates.

The material may contain third-party information or opinions that do not represent the official position of any institution or individual. Virtual asset and related product prices can be highly volatile. Investors should make independent judgments based on their own financial situation, investment objectives, and risk tolerance, and should conduct their own research (DYOR) and consult independent professional advisors before making any investment decisions.

This material is not applicable to residents of Mainland China. Relevant parties shall not be liable for any losses arising from the use of or reliance on this material, except where applicable law does not permit such exclusion or limitation.